Forecasting of Retail Price Rise in Tomato, Onion and Potato Commodities in India

The study analyzed the price trends of tomato, onion, and potato commodities in India from January 2014 to April 2024, using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data. It applied autoregressive models to forecast the CPI sub-indices for these three commodities. Results indicated that tomato had the highest price rise but the lowest instability, while potato exhibited the highest instability. Seasonality was vital, with onion prices peaking in November, tomato in July, and potato in November. The model achieved high forecasting accuracy, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 4.58 per cent, 2.02 per cent, and 1.30 per cent for tomato, onion, and potato, respectively. The study also identified key determinants of price volatility, emphasizing the need for seasonal agricultural planning at macro, meso, and micro levels. Particular attention should be paid to high-price months like November and July. The study recommends strengthening market intelligence efforts to ensure stakeholders have equal access to current and forecasted market prices. Policymakers are urged to closely monitor CPI sub-indices and develop price stabilization strategies.